Differences in Assessing and Managing Credit Risk in Investment Essay

Differences in Assessing and Managing Credit Risk in Investment Banking and Commercial Banking - Essay Example Credit risk represents the possibility of loss due to the inability of the obligor to fulfill the terms in the financial obligation (bond, note, lease, installment debt etc.). The credit risk is known by slightly different terms in investment and commercial backings. Counterparty credit risk is important for investment banking mainly in trading operations and loan credit risk is crucial in commercial banking. Though both may be caused by the same reason, default, they are managed differently. Credit risk becomes a very serious issue if accompanied by poor banking operations. Proper systems and controls should be in place for effectively assessing and managing credit risks in both type of banking operations. Credit risk arises when a borrower of a loan fails to repay it (in commercial banking) or when an issuer of a security or a bond fails to fulfill his financial obligation (a corporate who issued a bond may go bankrupt) to the borrower . For assessment of credit risks in the financial products the investment banking firms (which is more complex compared to assessment in commercial banking) rely on the credit rating assigned to the issuer by the major credit rating companies. To arrive at the credit rating, the agencies carry out a research and an assessment of the account statements (income and expenditure, balance sheet), quality of the management, previous business and financial track records, the potential business and financial risks and the ability of the management to mitigate them effectively. ... Proper systems and controls should be in place for effectively assessing and managing credit risks in both type of banking operations. Assessing Credit risk in Investment Banking and Commercial Banking Credit risk arises when a borrower of a loan fails to repay it (in commercial banking) or when an issuer of a security or a bond fails to fulfill his financial obligation (a corporate who issued a bond may go bankrupt) to the borrower (in investment banking). For assessment of credit risks in the financial products the investment banking firms (which is more complex compared to assessment in commercial banking) rely on the credit rating (considered as the representation of the financial strength of the issuer or the product that is issued to meet its financial obligations) assigned to the issuer by the major credit rating companies. To arrive at the credit rating, the agencies carry out a research and an assessment of the account statements (income and expenditure, balance sheet), quality of the management, previous business and financial track records, the potential business and financial risks and the ability of the management to mitigate them effectively. Based on the data collec ted and analysis of the same, the agencies issue a credit rating, which is a qualitative judgment of the ability of the issuer to meet his financial obligations. Standard & Poor, Moody's (US) and Fitch-IBCA (UK) are some of the leading and reputed credit rating agencies whose ratings carry more value in the financial market. The companies/products who exhibit least risk are given investment grades and with increasing possibilities of risk, the rating is graded down to the ones with definite possibility for default are

Sexual Selection and Human Evolution Theories

Sexual Selection and Human Evolution Theories Miller, G.F. A review of sexual selection and human evolution: How mate choice shaped human nature Natural selection shapes species to adapt to their environments and arises from individual differences in survival ability- cannot favour ornamental traits that decrease survivorship. However, it is not sufficient to account for male traits such as peacocks tail that do not enhance survivorship but rather jeopardize it. Darwin argued that in species with sexual reproduction traits that improved ones chances in mate competition were selected for regardless of their negative effects for survival. Furthermore, Darwin emphasized the importance of female choice and male competition within the sexual selection because the former evokes the latter. However, Darwin does not investigate the origins of female preference (Ridley, M). Sexual selection was neglected for a long time because it implied the major evolutionary importance of female choice and it was not well accepted by the contemporaries of Darwin. Darwin: evolution is differential reproduction rather than differential reproduction. Novel concept. Hard to do mathematical analysis. Alfred Russell Wallace who wrote about natural selection at the same time with Darwin believed that exaggerated male ornaments and traits did not have an adaptive purpose and did not result from female choice but from good health and genes that allowed males to spend resources on display. He suggested that females are under stronger natural selection to have less ornamentation to avoid attention from predators because they spend lot of time near their offspring (Miller, 2000). Fisher (1930) believed that mate selection criteria were biological and thus, under natural selection. He suggested that male sexual ornaments served as indicators of high fitness and good genetic quality and would be selected by females (Miller, 2000). Furthermore, he coined the term runaway sexual selection, which suggests an evolutionary feedback mechanism where female preferences reinforce and perpetuate the traits selected for in males. In the case of runaway selection females choose to mate with males who display a certain trait, subsequently, it will be passed on to the offspring who will then have the trait that makes them more attractive mates. This ultimately leads to phenomenon such as peacocks tail. In Fishers model the male trait was not deleterious at the start but with females preferring a particular characteristic it passed its optimum cost-benefit ratio, and ultimately, costly traits arise as the outcome of runaway sexual selection (Ridley). Zahavi. Trivers (1972) was the first to explain the different intensity of sexual selection in males and females through unequal amount of parental investment. The production of gametes is more costly and time-consuming than that of sperm. Also, females invest more resources into offspring, therefore, they must be choosy and by mating with high-quality male they enhance the quality of their offspring. Since the number of available females limits male reproduction success males have to court and compete for the females. Trivers suggested that the level of competition among males is correlated with the imbalance of parental investment. For example, there is a great difference in body size between male and female elephant seals where one male can guard 40 females, resulting in strong male-male competition. (Le Boeuf, 1974). Trivers theory can be applied to bird species like pharalorpes and wading birds where it is the females who are bigger, more colourful and aggressive compete with each other for males and males take care of the offspring (Jenni, 1974). Importance of sexual selection theory: it was disregarded for the most part of 20th century and many science and humanities subjects were advanced without taking sexual selection into account, thus, many theories may need to be revised. Ridley, M., 1993, Evolution, Ch12 Adaptations in sexual reproduction Traits that reduce survivorship are deleterious and are mainly present in males as secondary sexual characteristics that are not actually necessary for reproduction; however, they may give an advantage in mate competition with other males. The most famous example of secondary sexual characteristics is peacocks tail but also colourful plumage of birds, big antlers in elks etc. Although these traits are costly they have not been eliminated by natural selection. Darwins sexual selection theory suggests that the disadvantages in having elaborate secondary sexual characteristics are evened out because they convey a benefit in gaining access to females and increasing reproductive success. Darwin distributes sexual selection into two categories: male competition and female choice. Darwin argued that secondary sexual characteristics would be more developed in polygamous species where typically one male mates with several females because the selection for male traits that enhance reproduction will be greater. He provided evidence for sexual selection by comparing polygamous and monogamous species and showed that in the former males tend to have brighter colouring, ornaments and larger bodies whereas in the latter males and females differ less. Another theory that tries to explain mate choice criteria is Zahavis handicap theory (Zahavi, 1975). According to this, only males with good genes can survive with a handicapping trait, such as peacocks tail and females will prefer to mate with them. Selection will favour males with handicap traits if their good genes outweigh the cost of the trait. The high cost of handicapping character makes it an honest indicator of males quality. In his model the preferred male trait was costly to begin with and the expense did not change as the trait became more desired in females. Archer,J, Lloyd, B, 2002, Sex and gender, Ch 3 Origins Sexual selection entails female choice and females should choose mates according to their ability to provide the female and her offspring with resources and protection. Buss (1989) studied human mate preferences in 37 cultures and concluded that there is a strong trend for females valuing mates with greater financial capacity, ambition and sense of entrepreneurship. Archer and Lloyd suggest that this is consistent with Triverss theory where females are interested in finding a partner who would be able to invest more parental care into offspring by providing resources. Males preferred physical attractiveness and youth, which are traits correlated with reproductive capacity (Buss, 1989). Miller, G.F., 2000, The mating mind: How sexual choice shaped the evolution of human nature Darwin became interested in different animal ornamentation that he encountered on his around-the-world-trip on the board of the Beagle. In 1871 he published The decent of man, and selection in relation to sex where amongst other topics he wrote about sexual selection. Sexual selection shapes each sex in relation to the other sex. Many of Darwins ideas were attacked but after a century it was rediscovered. Dawkins, R., 1989, The selfish gene, Battle of the sexes One of the main female strategies of reproduction is that instead of expecting help from the male to raise the offspring the female prefers good genes instead. If a female can detect good quality males by using visual cues than her offspring will receive on better genetic material. By doing so the likelihood of her genes to survive increases too. Emlen, S.T., Oring, L.W., 1977, Ecology, sexual selection and the evolution of mating systems Environmental factors affect the development of mating systems and ultimately the intensity of sexual selection. Fitness is a measure for individuals reproductive success in relation to that of other individuals. Male reproductive success is limited by the access to females, whereas female reproductive success is determined by the available resources. Subsequently, if females limit the reproduction of males then the competition and sexual selection will intensify in males. The ability of a male to protect territory or other resources attracts more females and causes differences in the mating success of other males. The presence of polygamous and monogamous mating systems depends on environmental factors such as the availability of receptive mates and the distribution of resources in time and space, which affects their defensibility. Polygamy is more common in species where one sex is does not invest parental care, and thus, can spend time and energy on defending resources and competi ng for mates. Emlen and Oring (1977) suggest that sexual selection is stronger in polygamous species than in monogamous species. They point out that the more one sex manages to monopolize resources the stronger becomes sexual selection and the more likely is the development of polygamous mating system. Moreover, the mating system can differ between populations of the same species due to variations in environmental setting, population structure and density, amount and distribution of resources that all change the potential of monopolization. Andersson, M., Iwasa, Y., 1996, Sexual selection Sexual selection occurs through competition over mates, which is also the underlying factor of different mechanisms of sexual selection. Andersson and Iwasa (1996) list these different mechanisms: firstly, female and male choice of mate that has been demonstrated in numerous studies acts to favour traits that attract mates from the opposite sex; secondly, contests that can take the form of direct fighting and favour traits such as large body size, physical stamina, weaponry and other characteristics that enhance fighting ability in the competing sex; thirdly, endurance rivalry that promotes traits to retain reproductive activeness for longer to increase the possibility of mating. Furthermore, they also suggest scramble competition that promotes traits that help in finding the mate before others, such as earlier maturation or better locomotion skills. In addition, other mechanisms are infanticide, coercion and sperm competition. As Andersson and Iwasa (1996) point out, the majority of research has concerned mate choice and mate competition, whereas other mechanisms of sexual selection remain poorly examined. Owens and Thompson (1994) suggest that optimal mate choice is a trade-off between the number of mates and their quality. They argue that both males and females can be picky; however, the selection will be greater in the sex with higher reproductive rate. Batemans gradient explains the differential intensity of sexual selection in males and females. In his studies with Drosophila, Bateman showed that sexual selection is typically stronger in males because the number of offspring fathered by a male increases proportionally with the number of males, whereas the number of offspring remains the same for the female regardless of the amount of males she mates. Male secondary sexual characteristics may become more pronounced if they increase their reproductive success, although if it reduces the overall viability. The costs of these characteristics include higher threat of predation; large bodies pose higher energetic demands and increase the likelihood of starvation during the growth period; competition may lead to injuries and death. Thus, the extent of secondary sexual characteristics is limited by their costliness and by sexual selection itself if one favoured trait starts to compromise another selected trait. Sexual selection affects the genetic make-up of the offspring and thus, is an important factor in evolution. It is currently very difficult to discriminate between the different mechanisms of sexual selection and their importance.

Analysis of Two settings in Shakespeare’s Macbeth Essay -- The Tragedy

An analysis of two settings in Shakespeare’s Macbeth. By using the heath and castles as contrasting settings in Macbeth, William Shakespeare reinforces and reflects various themes present throughout the play. Through the combined use of these settings, he contrasts notions of security and danger, fairness and foulness, and the natural and supernatural. Although the heath is a meeting place for evil and is represented as a grim location through a number of methods, the heath itself is safe. Contrarily, the castles that Macbeth inhabits, both Inverness and Dunsinane, are repeatedly described as safe, secure, and welcoming. These castles, however, are far more dangerous than the heath, acting more as traps than shelter. The notions of fairness and foulness are also reversed at the heath and the castles in the play. The witches at the heath are relatively benign and only deliver prophecies of truth to Macbeth, while conceptions of fairness are repeatedly distorted to the point of foulness at the castles he inhabits. Finally, while it is certainly true that the witches represent the supernatural world, the supernatural deeds which occur at the heath are far more subtle when compared to the unnatural events which take place in the castles. By examining the plot developments which transpire in their respective settings, one can conclude that Shakespeare intentionally contrasts the settings of the play with the deeds that happen there, creating a strong separation from appearance and reality throughout the play. First, the concepts of security and danger are constantly in question when referring to the settings of the heath and the castle. As Hecate proclaims to the witches, â€Å"security / Is mortals’ chiefest enemy† (Mac. ... ...med to his table. By examining the use of setting in Macbeth, one can infer that the castles in the play are the setting for much more horrid deeds than the heath. Although the heath is represented as a dark, scary place inhabited by creatures of the supernatural, no character is ever killed, or even injured there. The heath is safer than Macbeth’s castles, which are the scenes of multiple murders. Far more foulness evidently occurs at Macbeth’s homes, despite their pleasant appearance. This interesting contradiction resonates in the witches’ proclamation â€Å"Fair is foul, and foul is fair† (Mac. 1.1.11), suggesting the duality of the settings in the play. The setting which appears most foul, the heath, is actually a relatively harmless place, while the castles, despite their fair appearance and inhabitants, are the scene of the supernatural, foulness and danger. Analysis of Two settings in Shakespeare’s Macbeth Essay -- The Tragedy An analysis of two settings in Shakespeare’s Macbeth. By using the heath and castles as contrasting settings in Macbeth, William Shakespeare reinforces and reflects various themes present throughout the play. Through the combined use of these settings, he contrasts notions of security and danger, fairness and foulness, and the natural and supernatural. Although the heath is a meeting place for evil and is represented as a grim location through a number of methods, the heath itself is safe. Contrarily, the castles that Macbeth inhabits, both Inverness and Dunsinane, are repeatedly described as safe, secure, and welcoming. These castles, however, are far more dangerous than the heath, acting more as traps than shelter. The notions of fairness and foulness are also reversed at the heath and the castles in the play. The witches at the heath are relatively benign and only deliver prophecies of truth to Macbeth, while conceptions of fairness are repeatedly distorted to the point of foulness at the castles he inhabits. Finally, while it is certainly true that the witches represent the supernatural world, the supernatural deeds which occur at the heath are far more subtle when compared to the unnatural events which take place in the castles. By examining the plot developments which transpire in their respective settings, one can conclude that Shakespeare intentionally contrasts the settings of the play with the deeds that happen there, creating a strong separation from appearance and reality throughout the play. First, the concepts of security and danger are constantly in question when referring to the settings of the heath and the castle. As Hecate proclaims to the witches, â€Å"security / Is mortals’ chiefest enemy† (Mac. ... ...med to his table. By examining the use of setting in Macbeth, one can infer that the castles in the play are the setting for much more horrid deeds than the heath. Although the heath is represented as a dark, scary place inhabited by creatures of the supernatural, no character is ever killed, or even injured there. The heath is safer than Macbeth’s castles, which are the scenes of multiple murders. Far more foulness evidently occurs at Macbeth’s homes, despite their pleasant appearance. This interesting contradiction resonates in the witches’ proclamation â€Å"Fair is foul, and foul is fair† (Mac. 1.1.11), suggesting the duality of the settings in the play. The setting which appears most foul, the heath, is actually a relatively harmless place, while the castles, despite their fair appearance and inhabitants, are the scene of the supernatural, foulness and danger.

Second Foundation 16. Beginning of War

For reason or reasons unknown to members of the Galaxy at the time of the era under discussion, Intergalactic Standard Time defines its fundamental unit, the second, as the time in which light travels 299,776 kilometers. 86,400 seconds are arbitrarily set equal to one Intergalactic Standard Day; and 365 of these days to one Intergalactic Standard Year. Why 299,776?- Or 86,400?- Or 365? Tradition, says the historian, begging the question. Because of certain and various mysterious numerical relationships, say the mystics, cultists, numerologists, metaphysicists. Because the original home-planet of humanity had certain natural periods of rotation and revolution from which those relationships could be derived, say a very few. No one really knew. Nevertheless, the date on which the Foundation cruiser, the Hober Mallow met the Kalganian squadron, headed by the Fearless, and, upon refusing to allow a search party to board, was blasted into smoldering wreckage was 185; 11692 G.E. That is, it was the 185th day of the 11,692nd year of the Galactic Era which dated from the accession of the first Emperor of the traditional Kamble dynasty. It was also 185; 419 A.S. – dating from the birth of Seldon – or 185; 348 Y.F. – dating from the establishment of the Foundation. On Kalgan it was 185; 56 F.C. – dating from the establishment of the First Citizenship by the Mule. In each case, of course, for convenience, the year was so arranged as to yield the same day number regardless of the actual day upon which the era began. And, in addition, to all the millions of worlds of the Galaxy, there were millions of local times, based on the motions of their own particular heavenly neighbors. But whichever you choose: 185; 11692-419-348-56 – or anything – it was this day which historians later pointed to when they spoke of the start of the Stettinian war. Yet to Dr. Darell, it was none of these at all. It was simply and quite precisely the thirty-second day since Arcadia had left Terminus. What it cost Darell to maintain stolidity through these days was not obvious to everyone. But Elvett Semic thought he could guess. He was an old man and fond of saying that his neuronic sheaths had calcified to the point where his thinking processes were stiff and unwieldy. He invited and almost welcomed the universal underestimation of his decaying powers by being the first to laugh at them. But his eyes were none the less seeing for being faded; his mind none the less experienced and wise, for being no longer agile. He merely twisted his pinched lips and said, â€Å"Why don't you do something about it?† The sound was a physical jar to Darell, under which he winced. He said, gruffly, â€Å"Where were we?† Semic regarded him with grave eyes. â€Å"You'd better do something about the girl.† His sparse, yellow teeth showed in a mouth that was open in inquiry. But Darell replied coldly, â€Å"The question is: Can you get a Symes-Molff Resonator in the range required?† Well, I said I could and you weren't listening-â€Å" â€Å"I'm sorry, Elvett. It's like this. What we're doing now can be more important to everyone in the Galaxy than the question of whether Arcadia is safe. At least, to everyone but Arcadia and myself, and I'm willing to go along with the majority. How big would the Resonator be?† Semic looked doubtful, â€Å"I don't know. You can find it somewheres in the catalogues.† â€Å"About how big. A ton? A pound? A block long?† â€Å"Oh, I thought you meant exactly. It's a little jigger.† He indicated the first joint of his thumb. â€Å"About that.† â€Å"All right, can you do something like this?† He sketched rapidly on the pad he held in his lap, then passed it over to the old physicist, who peered at it doubtfully, then chuckled. â€Å"Y'know, the brain gets calcified when you get as old as I am. What are you trying to do?† Darell hesitated. He longed desperately, at the moment, for the physical knowledge locked in the other's brain, so that he need not put his thought into words. But the longing was useless, and he explained. Semic was shaking his head. â€Å"You'd need hyper-relays. The only things that would work fast enough. A thundering lot of them.† â€Å"But it can be built?† â€Å"Well, sure.† â€Å"Can you get all the parts? I mean, without causing comment? In line with your general work.† Semic lifted his upper lip. â€Å"Can't get fifty hyper-relays? I wouldn't use that many in my whole life.† â€Å"We're on a defense project, now. Can't you think of something harmless that would use them? We've got the money.† â€Å"Hm-m-m. Maybe I can think of something.† â€Å"How small can you make the whole gadget?† â€Å"Hyper-relays can be had micro-size†¦ wiring†¦ tubes – Space, you've got a few hundred circuits there.† â€Å"I know. How big?† Semic indicated with his hands. â€Å"Too big,† said Darell. â€Å"I've got to swing it from my belt† Slowly, he was crumpling his sketch into a tight ball. When it was a hard, yellow grape, he dropped it into the ash tray and it was gone with the tiny white flare of molecular decomposition. He said, â€Å"Who's at your door?† Semic leaned over his desk to the little milky screen above the door signal. He said, â€Å"The young fellow, Anthor. Someone with him, too.† Darell scraped his chair back. â€Å"Nothing about this, Semic, to the others yet. It's deadly knowledge, if they find out, and two lives are enough to risk.† Pelleas Anthor was a pulsing vortex of activity in Semic's office, which, somehow, managed to partake of the age of its occupant. In the slow turgor of the quiet room, the loose, summery sleeves of Anthor's tunic seemed still a-quiver with the outer breezes. He said, â€Å"Dr. Darell, Dr. Semic – Orum Dirige.† The other man was tall. A long straight nose that lent his thin face a saturnine appearance. Dr. Darell held out a hand. Anthor smiled slightly. â€Å"Police Lieutenant Dirige,† he amplified. Then, significantly, â€Å"Of Kalgan.† And Darell turned to stare with force at the young man. â€Å"Police Lieutenant Dirige of Kalgan,† he repeated, distinctly. â€Å"And you bring him here. Why?† â€Å"Because he was the last man on Kalgan to see your daughter. Hold, man.† Anthor's look of triumph was suddenly one of concern, and he was between the two, struggling violently with Darell. Slowly, and not gently, he forced the older man back into the chair. â€Å"What are you trying to do?† Anthor brushed a lock of brown hair from his forehead, tossed a hip lightly upon the desk, and swung a leg, thoughtfully. â€Å"I thought I was bringing you good news.† Darell addressed the policeman directly, â€Å"What does he mean by calling you the last man to see my daughter? Is my daughter dead? Please tell me without preliminary.† His face was white with apprehension. Lieutenant Dirige said expressionlessly, † ‘Last man on Kalgan' was the phrase. She's not on Kalgan now. I have no knowledge past that.† â€Å"Here,† broke in Anthor, â€Å"let me put it straight. Sorry if I overplayed the drama a bit, Doc. You're so inhuman about this, I forget you have feelings. In the first place, Lieutenant Dirige is one of us. He was born on Kalgan, but his father was a Foundation man brought to that planet in the service of the Mule. I answer for the lieutenant's loyalty to the Foundation. â€Å"Now I was in touch with him the day after we stopped getting the daily report from Munn-â€Å" â€Å"Why?† broke in Darell, fiercely. â€Å"I thought it was quite decided that we were not to make a move in the matter. You were risking their lives and ours.† â€Å"Because,† was the equally fierce retort, â€Å"I've been involved in this game for longer than you. Because I know of certain contacts on Kalgan of which you know nothing. Because I act from deeper knowledge, do you understand?† â€Å"I think you're completely mad.† â€Å"Will you listen?† A pause, and Darell's eyes dropped. Anthor's lips quirked into a half smile, â€Å"All right, Doc. Give me a few minutes. Tell him, Dirige.† Dirige spoke easily: â€Å"As far as I know, Dr. Darell, your daughter is at Trantor. At least, she had a ticket to Trantor at the Eastern Spaceport. She was with a Trading Representative from that planet who claimed she was his niece. Your daughter seems to have a queer collection of relatives, doctor. That was the second uncle she had in a period of two weeks, eh? The Trantorian even tried to bribe me – probably thinks that's why they got away.† He smiled grimly at the thought. â€Å"How was she?† â€Å"Unharmed, as far as I could see. Frightened. I don't blame her for that. The whole department was after her. I still don't know why.† Darell drew a breath for what seemed the first time in several minutes. He was conscious of the trembling of his hands and controlled them with an effort. â€Å"Then she's all right. This Trading Representative, who was he? Go back to him. What part does he play in it?† â€Å"I don't know. Do you know anything about Trantor?† â€Å"I lived there once.† â€Å"It's an agricultural world, now. Exports animal fodder and grains, mostly. High quality! They sell them all over the Galaxy. There are a dozen or two farm co-operatives on the planet and each has its representatives overseas. Shrewd sons of guns, too- I knew this one's record. He'd been on Kalgan before, usually with his wife. Perfectly honest. Perfectly harmless.† â€Å"Um-m-m,† said Anthor. â€Å"Arcadia was born in Trantor, wasn't she, Doc?† Darell nodded. â€Å"It hangs together, you see. She wanted to go away – quickly and far – and Trantor would suggest itself. Don't you think so?† Darell said: â€Å"Why not back here?† â€Å"Perhaps she was being pursued and felt that she had to double off in a new angle, eh?' Dr. Darell lacked the heart to question further. Well, then, let her be safe on Trantor, or as safe as one could be anywhere in this dark and horrible Galaxy. He groped toward the door, felt Anthor's light touch on his sleeve, and stopped, but did not turn. â€Å"Mind if I go home with you, Doc?† â€Å"You're welcome,† was the automatic response. By evening, the exteriormost reaches of Dr. Darell's personality, the ones that made immediate contact with other people had solidified once more. He had refused to eat his evening meal and had, instead, with feverish insistence, returned to the inchwise advance into the intricate mathematics of encephalographic analysis. It was not till nearly midnight, that he entered the living room again. Pelleas Anthor was still there, twiddling at the controls of the video. The footsteps behind him caused him to glance over his shoulder. â€Å"Hi. Aren't you in bed yet? I've been spending hours on the video, trying to get something other than bulletins. It seems the F.S. Hober Mallow is delayed in course and hasn't been heard from† â€Å"Really? What do they suspect?† â€Å"What do you think? Kalganian skulduggery. There are reports that Kalganian vessels were sighted in the general space sector in which the Hober Mallow was last heard from?† Darell shrugged, and Anthor rubbed his forehead doubtfully. â€Å"Look doc,† he said, â€Å"why don't you go to Trantor?† â€Å"Why should I?† â€Å"Because â€Å"You're no good to us here. You're not yourself. You can't be. And you could accomplish a purpose by going to Trantor, too. The old Imperial Library with the complete records of the Proceedings of the Seldon Commission are there-â€Å" â€Å"No! The Library has been picked clean and it hasn't helped anyone.† â€Å"It helped Ebling Mis once.† â€Å"How do you know? Yes, he said he found the Second Foundation, and my mother killed him five seconds later as the only way to keep him from unwittingly revealing its location to the Mule. But in doing so, she also, you realize, made it impossible ever to tell whether Mis really did know the location. After all, no one else has ever been able to deduce the truth from those records.† â€Å"Ebling Mis, if you'll remember, was working under the driving impetus of the Mule's mind.† â€Å"I know that, too, but Mis' mind was, by that very token, in an abnormal state. Do you and I know anything about the properties of a mind under the emotional control of another; about its abilities and shortcomings? In any case, I will not go to Trantor.† Anthor frowned, â€Å"Well, why the vehemence? I merely suggested it as – well, by Space, I don't understand you. You look ten years older. You're obviously having a hellish time of it. You're not doing anything of value here. If I were you, I'd go and get the girl.† â€Å"Exactly! It's what I want to do, too. That's why I won't do it. Look, Anthor, and try to understand. You're playing – we're both playing – with something completely beyond our powers to fight. In cold blood, if you have any, you know that, whatever you may think in your moments of quixoticism. â€Å"For fifty years, we've known that the Second Foundation is the real descendent and pupil of Seldonian mathematics. What that means, and you know that, too, is that nothing in the Galaxy happens which does not play a part in their reckoning. To us, all life is a series of accidents, to be met with by improvisations To them, all life is purposive and should be met by precalculation. â€Å"But they have their weakness. Their work is statistical and only the mass action of humanity is truly inevitable. Now how I play a part, as an individual, in the foreseen course of history, I don't know. Perhaps I have no definite part, since the Plan leaves individuals to indeterminacy and free will. But I am important and they – they, you understand – may at least have calculated my probable reaction. So I distrust, my impulses, my desires, my probable reactions. â€Å"I would rather present them with an improbable reaction. I will stay here, despite the fact that I yearn very desperately to leave.*** â€Å"No! Because I yearn very desperately to leave.† The younger man smiled sourly. â€Å"You don't know your own mind as well as they might. Suppose that – knowing you – they might count on what you think, merely think, is the improbable reaction, simply by knowing in advance what your line of reasoning would be.† â€Å"In that case, there is no escape. For if I follow the reasoning you have just outlined and go to Trantor, they may have foreseen that, too. There is an endless cycle of double-double-double-double-crosses. No matter how far I follow that cycle, I can only either go or stay. The intricate act of luring my daughter halfway across the Galaxy cannot be meant to make me stay where I am, since I would most certainly have stayed if they had done nothing. It can only be to make me move, and so I will stay. â€Å"And besides, Anthor, not everything bears the breath of the Second Foundation; not all events are the results of their puppeting. They may have had nothing to do with Arcadia's leave-taking, and she may be safe on Trantor when all the rest of us are dead.† â€Å"No,† said Anthor, sharply, â€Å"now you are off the track.† â€Å"You have an alternative interpretation?† â€Å"I have – if you'll listen.† â€Å"Oh, go ahead. I don't lack patience.† â€Å"Well, then – how well do you know your own daughter?† â€Å"How well can any individual know any other? Obviously, my knowledge is inadequate.† â€Å"So is mine on that basis, perhaps even more so – but at least, I viewed her with fresh eyes. Item one: She is a ferocious little romantic, the only child of an ivory-tower academician, growing up in an unreal world of video and book-film adventure. She lives in a weird self-constructed fantasy of espionage and intrigue. Item two: She's intelligent about it; intelligent enough to outwit us, at any rate. She planned carefully to overhear our first conference and succeeded. She planned carefully to go to Kalgan with Munn and succeeded. Item three: She has an unholy hero-worship of her grandmother – your mother – who defeated the Mule. â€Å"I'm right so far, I think? All right, then. Now, unlike you, I've received a complete report from Lieutenant Dirige and, in addition, my sources of information on Kalgan are rather complete, and all sources check. We know, for instance, that Homir Munn, in conference with the Lord of Kalgan was refused admission to the Mule's Palace, and that this refusal was suddenly abrogated after Arcadia had spoken to Lady Callia, the First Citizen's very good friend.† Darell interrupted. â€Å"And how do you know all this?† â€Å"For one thing, Munn was interviewed by Dirige as part of the police campaign to locate Arcadia. Naturally, we have a complete transcript of the questions and answers. â€Å"And take Lady Callia herself. It is rumored that she has lost Stettin's interest, but the rumor isn't borne out by facts. She not only remains unreplaced; is not only able to mediate the lord's refusal to Munn into an acceptance; but can even engineer Arcadia's escape openly. Why, a dozen of the soldiers about Stettin's executive mansion testified that they were seen together on the last evening. Yet she remains unpunished. This despite the fact that Arcadia was searched for with every appearance of diligence.† â€Å"But what is your conclusion from all this torrent of ill-connection?† â€Å"That Arcadia's escape was arranged.† â€Å"As I said.† â€Å"With this addition. That Arcadia must have known it was arranged; that Arcadia, the bright little girl who saw cabals everywhere, saw this one and followed your own type of reasoning. They wanted her to return to the Foundation, and so she went to Trantor, instead. But why Trantor?† â€Å"Well, why?† â€Å"Because that is where Bayta, her idolized grandmother, escaped when she was in flight. Consciously or unconsciously, Arcadia imitated that. I wonder, then, if Arcadia was fleeing the same enemy.† â€Å"The Mule?† asked Darell with polite sarcasm. â€Å"Of course not. I mean, by the enemy, a mentality that she could not fight. She was running from the Second Foundation, or such influence thereof as could be found on Kalgan.† â€Å"What influence is this you speak of?† â€Å"Do you expect Kalgan to be immune from that ubiquitous menace? We both have come to the conclusion, somehow, that Arcadia's escape was arranged. Right? She was searched for and found, but deliberately allowed to slip away by Dirige. By Dirige, do you understand? But how was that? Because he was our man. But how did they know that? Were they counting on him to be a traitor? Eh, doc?† â€Å"Now you're saying that they honestly meant to recapture her. Frankly, you're tiring me a bit, Anthor. Finish your say; I want to go to bed.† â€Å"My say is quickly finished.† Anthor reached for a small group of photo-records in his inner pocket. It was the familiar wigglings of the encephalograph. â€Å"Dirige's brainwaves,† Anthor said, casually, â€Å"taken since he returned.† It was quite visible to Darell's naked eye, and his face was gray when he looked up. â€Å"He is Controlled.† â€Å"Exactly. He allowed Arcadia to escape not because he was our man but because he was the Second Foundation's.† â€Å"Even after he knew she was going to Trantor, and not to Terminus.† Anthor shrugged. â€Å"He had been geared to let her go. There was no way he could modify that. He was only a tool, you see. It was just that Arcadia followed the least probable course, and is probably safe. Or at least safe until such time as the Second Foundation can modify the plans to take into account this changed state of affairs-â€Å" He paused. The little signal light on the video set was flashing. On an independent circuit, it signified the presence of emergency news. Darell saw it, too, and with the mechanical movement of long habit turned on the video. They broke in upon the middle of a sentence but before its completion, they knew that the Hober Mallow, or the wreck thereof, had been found and that, for the first time in nearly half a century, the Foundation was again at war. Anthor's jaw was set in a hard line. â€Å"All right, doc, you heard that. Kalgan has attacked; and Kalgan is under the control of the Second Foundation. Will you follow your daughter's lead and move to Trantor?† â€Å"No. I will risk it. Here.† â€Å"Dr. Darell. You are not as intelligent as your daughter. I wonder how far you can be trusted.† His long level stare held Darell for a moment, and then without a word, he left. And Darell was left in uncertainty and – almost – despair. Unheeded, the video was a medley of excited sight-sound, as it described in nervous detail the first hour of the war between Kalgan and the Foundation.

Technology and Communication

We know that communication is important in every part of our lives and technology is forever changing the different ways we are able to communicate. Because technology is continuously being advanced the way people communicate in the criminal justice system must evolve to keep up with the current trends. It is important that we keep up with the changing technology in regards to communication because effective communication is the direct result of a successful investigation. The communication capabilities of specialized data bases within the criminal justice system have been affected in a huge way by technology. Some of the current technologies used in the criminal justice system today are mobile data terminals, automated fingerprint identification system (AFIS), live scan, facial recognition, and iris scan. The two modern technologies that will be discussed are the automated fingerprint identification system and facial recognition. The positive and negative effects of AFIS and facial recognition will also be discussed. Fingerprints and facial characteristics have been used by the criminal justice system to indentify criminals for several years. The patterns found on a person’s fingers and unique features found on their face have several distinguishing characteristics that separate them from the rest of society. These two systems, though effective have been known to take hours or even days to come up with results. Because time is so valuable to the criminal justice system these comparisons need to be done expeditiously because in many cases the time it has taken to match a set of fingerprints to a single person has been the difference between life and death for the accused. Modern technology has helped in a huge way to speed up this comparison process and has resulted in the setting free of wrongly accused persons and the locking away of the guilty party. Let’s break these two systems down starting with AFIS. AFIS is basically a database where mass amounts of fingerprint images have been stored after being collected from several different sources. There are two different types of sources, known and unknown. Known sources are fingerprints that have been collected from law offenders, military personnel, police officers, banks, and more. These fingerprints are normally collected when a person is hired by a company or agency that requires a background check as a part of the hiring process. The most common unknown source is those prints collected at a crime scene to be compared with known samples, also known as latent prints. Each set of fingerprints have their own distinct patterns which are determined by a technician that enters them into the database. â€Å"Each fingerprint image is ‘filed’ based on its pattern type. † (Ridges and Furrows. 2004. Par. ) By doing this it speeds up the process because it helps to eliminate all the prints that do not have a similar pattern type in comparison to the sample. Once the matches are made using the database they are reviewed one more time doing it manually and if a match is made those prints are used to identify individuals. It is very important that the matches found by the computer database are manually reviewed to ensure an exact match. Facial recognitio n is also a very important aspect of communication in the criminal justice system. Facial recognition is known as â€Å"the automatic recognition of a person using distinguishing traits. † (Woodward et al. 2003. P. 1) Criminal justice professionals load photographs into computers and use these photographs to compare facial characteristics in an effort to make potential matches. There are also those who have acquired the talent of creating sketches of suspects from a description given by a witness. These sketches are then used in place of a photograph to obtain a positive match. The first step in this process is to capture the image either by camera or sketches. The second and third steps are to identify the face seen in the image and extract several features to create a template that can be used to make a match. The fourth step is to take the templates and make comparisons that will eventually lead to potential matches. There are several features found on and or around the face that make it possible to make a positive match. Some of these features are likely to change and others are not. Those features that are not likely to change are scars, moles, burns, and bone structure. There are also those features that could possibly change, one of which is tattoos. The only real similarity between the use of facial recognition and finger prints is that they must be manually compared to obtain the highest percentage of accuracy. Using both the database and the naked eye will eliminate all chances of misreading the results in most cases. As beneficial as these new technologies are there are always positive and negative effects to everything in life. The biggest positive effect that AFIS and Facial Recognition have on the criminal justice system is that they save large amounts of time during an investigation. Technicians are able to save large amounts of information to these databases so that when they process a search for comparison the computer does most of the work by eliminating all of the samples that are far from being the correct match and leaving only those samples that could possibly be the correct one. These databases also reduce the amount of human error that can occur when trying to make a match. The job of operating these databases can be extremely stressful and technicians tend to get rushed as a result of this stress and overlook things that may have lead to the result they were looking for to begin with. Now let’s go into the negative effects of these technologies. We know that as humans we are imperfect and anything created by humans has the potential to fail at any given time. It is also widely known that computers and servers use large amounts of electricity and have the potential to heat up very fast. If these data bases exceed the allowed temperature at any given time they will go down and this will result in the slowing down of any investigation that may be going on at the time. Another negative is the fact that these databases do not come with all of the information already installed. Uploading all of the samples takes a substantial amount of time and use of funds that could be used for the completion of other very important tasks. One last negative is the fact that these systems not only cost money to buy and operate, but people must be trained and paid to keep these databases up and running at all times so that progress does not stop in any form. Having well trained technicians is the most efficient way avoids having to deal with any of these negative effects. If the decision had to be made as to which one of these two databases contained the most reliability it would have to be the automated fingerprint identification system. I say this because we know that there are other technologies out in the world that can be used to make those technologies used by criminal justice professionals less effective. The technology that is being referred to is plastic surgery. It is possible for a person to have their facial features altered in such a way that they cannot be identified as who they truly are through the use of facial recognition databases. As for fingerprints, the only way that they can be altered is if a person were cut or burned so badly that scaring resulted. There have been several attempts by people over the years to erase their fingerprints, but these attempts have been unsuccessful. Fingerprinting has also been around a lot longer than facial recognition and has been proven to be more accurate than facial recognition. As we know technology is always changing as technicians find new ways to improve the systems that these databases run on. As technology improves the accuracy of AFIS, Facial Recognition, live scan, iris scan, and mobile data terminals will also improve. One thing to remember is that information must be manually uploaded into these databases so that they can be saved for current or future use. Another thing to remember is that when a potential match is made by using any of the before mentioned databases they must also be manually checked for accuracy. The reason for this is that the odds of two people having identical features is very low which means that results are not guaranteed to be perfect. The best way for agencies to ensure that these databases are used to their full potential is to continually train their technicians on the latest technology and keep the databases current. References Ridges and Furrows. (2004, April 15). Ridges and Furrows – AFIS Page. Retrieved April 5, 2010, from http://ridgesandfurrows.homestead.com/afispage.html Woodward, J., Horn, C., Gatune, J., & Thomas, A. (2003). Biometrics: A Look at Facial Recognition. Retrieved April 5, 2010, from www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB396/DB396.pdf Hayeslip, D. (2008, February 1). Evaluability Assessment of Mobile Automated Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS). Retrieved April 5, 2010, from www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/afis.pdf Lennard, C. J.  ().  The Thin Blue LIne.  Retrieved from http://www.policensw.com/info/fingerprints/finger15.html